Éric Bélanger




McGill University
Department of Political Science
Email: eric.belanger3@mcgill.ca







Education
PhD in Political Science, University of Montreal, 2003


Research
Éric Belanger is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Quebec Studies Program at McGill University. Though centered around Quebec and Canadian politics, his research focuses on the general themes of political parties, public opinion, and voting behaviour using a variety of quantitative methods. Some of his prior research has been concerned with economic voting and Quebec provincial elections. He is also involved in research projects studying voting behaviour in Latin America, as well as a comparison of nationalism in Quebec and Scotland.



Students
Brett Manzer, MA Political Science
(Start: 2016)

Gaby Gonzalez-Sirois, MA
(Start: 2017)

Giovanni Giuga, MA
(Start: 2017)


Postdocs
Charles Tessier,
Start: 2017

Publications
Third Party Success in Canada
Journal: Canadian Parties in Transition
Year: 2007
First Page: 83
Last Page: 109
Place: Peterborough


La langue française et la politique d'immigration
Journal: Le Parti libéral: enquête sur les réalisations du gouvernement Charest
Year: 2006
First Page: 257
Last Page: 272


Le gouvernement Charest a-t-il été aussi mauvais qu'on l'a dit?
Journal: Le Parti libéral: enquête sur les réalisations du gouvernement Charest
Year: 2006
First Page: 415
Last Page: 423


The Bloc Québécois: A Sour-Tasting Victory
Journal: The Canadian Federal Election of 2006
Year: 2006
First Page: 122
Last Page: 142


Le gouvernement Charest a-t-il tenu ses promesses?
Journal: L'annuaire du Québec 2007
Year: 2006
First Page: 151
Last Page: 155


Explaining the Rise of the LPF: Issues, Discontent, and the 2002 Dutch Election.
Journal: Acta Politica
Volume: 41
issue: 1
Year: 2006
First Page: 4
Last Page: 20


Party, Ideology, and Vote Intentions: Dynamics from the 2002 French Electoral Panel
Journal: Political Research Quarterly
Volume: 59
issue: 4
Year: 2006
First Page: 503
Last Page: 515


A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election
Journal: British Journal of Politics and International Relations
Volume: 7
issue: 2
Year: 2005
First Page: 191
Last Page: 198


Political Trust and the Vote in Multiparty Elections: The Canadian Case
Journal: European Journal of Political Research
Volume: 44
issue: 1
Year: 2005
First Page: 121
Last Page: 146


The Rational Public? A Canadian Test of the Page and Shapiro Argument
Journal: International Journal of Public Opinion Research
Volume: 17
issue: 2
Year: 2005
First Page: 190
Last Page: 212


Un tripartisme de transition
Journal: Policy Options/Options politiques
Volume: 28
issue: 5
Year: 2007
First Page: 69
Last Page: 73


Un réalignement s'opère… au détriment du PQ
Journal: Le Soleil
Year: 2007


How will we vote?
Journal: Toronto Star
Year: 2006


The 2007 Provincial Election in Quebec
Journal: Canadian Political Science Review
Volume: 2
issue: 1
Year: 2008
First Page: 72
Last Page: 77


Issue Salience, Issue Ownership, and Issue-Based Vote Choice
Journal: Electoral Studies
Volume: 27
issue: 3
Year: 2008
First Page: 477
Last Page: 491


La montee des tiers partis au Quebec a l'election de 2007: conjuncture ou tendance?
Journal: IRPP Choices
Volume: 14
issue: 17
Year: 2008
First Page: 1
Last Page: 36


Forecasting the Vote for a Third Party: The British Liberals, 1974-2005
Journal: British Journal of Politics and International Relations
Volume: 12
issue: 4
Year: 2010
First Page: 634
Last Page: 643


Does Perceived Competence Matter? Political Parties and Economic Voting in Canadian Federal Elections
Journal: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
Volume: 20
issue: 1
Year: 2010


The 2008 Provincial Election in Quebec
Journal: Canadian Political Science Review
Volume: 3
issue: 1
Year: 2009
First Page: 93
Last Page: 99


Young Quebec Sovereignists and Attitudes about Canadian Federalism
Journal: Québec Studies
Volume: 47
Year: 2009
First Page: 95
Last Page: 118


Facteurs d'appui à la souveraineté du Québec chez les jeunes: une comparaison entre francophones, anglophones et allophones
Journal: Politique et sociétés
Volume: 27
issue: 3
Year: 2008
First Page: 13
Last Page: 40


Third-Party Support in Canadian Elections: The Role of the Economy.
Journal: Voting Behaviour in Canada
Year: 2010
First Page: 163
Last Page: 182
Place: Vancouver
Publisher: UBC Press


Parties and Partisans: The Influence of Ideology and Brokerage on the Durability of Partisanship in Canada
Journal: Voting Behaviour in Canada
Year: 2009
First Page: 107
Last Page: 136
Place: Vancouver
Publisher: UBC Press


The Bloc Québécois: Victory by Default
Journal: The Canadian Federal Election of 2008
Year: 2009
First Page: 136
Last Page: 161
Place: Toronto
Publisher: Dundurn


Le comportement électoral des Québécois
Year: 2009
Place: Montréal
Publisher: Presses de l'Université de Montréal


Changements et continuités dans le comportement électoral des Québécois
Journal: l'État du Québec 2010
Year: 2010
First Page: 253
Last Page: 257
Place: Montréal
Publisher: Fides


L'électeur québécois et les partis
Journal: Les partis politiques québécois dans la tourmente: mieux comprendre et évaluer leur rôle
Year: 2012
First Page: 169
Last Page: 193
Place: Québec
Publisher: Presses de l'Université Laval


The Bloc Québécois: Capsized by the Orange Wave
Journal: The Canadian Federal Election of 2011
Year: 2011
First Page: 111
Last Page: 137
Place: Toronto
Publisher: Dundurn PRess


Continuité et changement dans le vote des Québécois
Journal: L'état du Québec 2010
Year: 2010
First Page: 253
Last Page: 257
Place: Montreal
Publisher: Boréal


Parties and Partisans: The Influence of Ideology and Brokerage on the Durability of Partisanship in Canada
Journal: Voting Behaviour in Canada
Year: 2010
First Page: 107
Last Page: 136
Place: Vancouver
Publisher: University of British Columbia Press


Campaigns and the Prediction of Election Outcomes: Can Historical and Campaign-Period Prediction Models Be Combined?
Journal: Electoral Studies
Volume: 31
issue: 4
Year: 2012
First Page: 702
Last Page: 714


Le vote économique en contexte de crise financière: l'élection provinciale de 2008 au Québec
Journal: Canadian Journal of Political Science
Volume: 44
issue: 3
Year: 2011
First Page: 529
Last Page: 551


French National Elections: Democratic Disequilibrium and the 2007 Forecasts
Journal: Canadian Journal of Political Science
Volume: 43
issue: 1
Year: 2010
First Page: 107
Last Page: 122


Book Review: Les partis générationnels au Québec: passé, présent, avenir by Vincent Lemieux
Volume: 45
issue: 2
Year: 2012
Publisher: Canadian Journal of Political Science


Is the Independence Issue Back on the Agenda in Quebec?
Journal: e-International Relations
Year: 2012


Book Review: Le Parti libéral du Québec, 2ième édition by Vincent Lemieux
Volume: 43
issue: 2
Year: 2010
Publisher: Canadian Journal of Political Science


Third Party Support in Canadian Federal and Provincial Elections
Journal: Canadian Voting Behaviour
Year: 2010
First Page: 163
Last Page: 182
Place: Vancouver
Publisher: UBC Press


Introduction
Journal: Le Parti libéral: enquête sur les réalisations du gouvernement Charest
Year: 2006
First Page: 1
Last Page: 8


Le Parti libéral: enquête sur les réalisations du gouvernement Charest
Year: 2006
Place: Les Presses de l'Université Laval


Electoral Accountability in a Federal System: National and Provincial Economic Voting in Canada
Journal: Publius: The Journal of Federalism
Volume: 35
issue: 3
Year: 2005
First Page: 407
Last Page: 424


Economic Voting and Political Sophistication in the United States: A Reassessment
Journal: Political Research Quarterly
Volume: 60
issue: 3
Year: 2007
First Page: 541
Last Page: 554


La victoire anticipée des travaillistes
Journal: Libération
Year: 2005


How Sophisticated Can a Voter Be to Make Causal Attributions? A Response to Gomez and Wilson's Comment.
Journal: Political Research Quarterly
Volume: 60
issue: 3
Year: 2007
First Page: 559
Last Page: 560


Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Segolene Royal and the Iowa Model
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 6
issue: 2
Year: 2008
First Page: 106
Last Page: 115


BQ in the House: The Nature of Sovereigntist Representation in the Canadian Parliament
Journal: Nationalism and Ethnic Politics
Volume: 14
issue: 4
Year: 2008
First Page: 487
Last Page: 522


Comment expliquer la vague orange du 2 mai au Québec?
Journal: L'état du Québec 2012
Year: 2012
First Page: 119
Last Page: 125
Place: Montreal
Publisher: Boréal


Quebec versus the Rest of Canada, 1965-2006
Journal: The Canadian Election Studies: Assessing Four Decades of Influence
Year: 2012
First Page: 136
Last Page: 153
Place: Vancouver
Publisher: University of British Columbia Press


Election Forecasting in Neglected Democracies: An Introduction
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Volume: 28
issue: 4
Year: 2012
First Page: 767
Last Page: 768


Le comportement électoral aux États-Unis
Journal: Le système politique américain
Year: 2013
Place: Montreal
Publisher: Presses de l'Université de Montréal


Choosing the Dependent Variable: Sarkozy's Forecasting Lessons
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 10
issue: 4
Year: 2012
First Page: 364
Last Page: 368


Débats télévisés et évaluations des candidats: la représentation visuelle des politiciens canadiens agit-elle dans la formation des préférences de l'électorat québécois?
Journal: Revue canadienne de science politique/Canadian Journal of Political Science
Volume: 38
issue: 4
Year: 2005
First Page: 867
Last Page: 895


Economics and Elections Revisited
Journal: Comparative Political Studies
Year: 2012
First Page: 1-23


Electoral Forecasting in France: A Multi-Equation Solution
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Volume: 26
issue: 1
Year: 2010
First Page: 11
Last Page: 18


Election Forecasting in the United Kingdom: A Two-Step Model
Journal: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
Volume: 19
issue: 3
Year: 2009
First Page: 333
Last Page: 358


French Presidential Elections
Year: 2012
Place: Basingstoke
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan


Proxy Models for Election Forecasting: The 2012 French Test
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 10
issue: 1
Year: 2012
First Page: 1
Last Page: 10


Nowcasting V. Polling: The 2010 UK Election Trials
Journal: Electoral Studies
Volume: 30
issue: 2
Year: 2011
First Page: 284
Last Page: 287


Issue-Based Strategies in Election Campaigns: The Case of Health Care in the 2000 Canadian Federal Election
Journal: Political Communication
Volume: 27
issue: 4
Year: 2010
First Page: 367
Last Page: 388


Economics and Elections Revisited
Journal: Comparative Political Studies
Year: 2012


Le vote des Français de Mitterrand à Sarkozy
Year: 2012
Place: Paris
Publisher: Presses de Sciences Po


A Vote Function Model to Forecast Canadian Federal Election Outcomes
Journal: PS: Political Science and Politics
Volume: 43
issue: 4
Year: 2010
First Page: 691
Last Page: 699
Éric Bélanger


Why do Parties Merge? The Case of the Conservative Party of Canada?
Journal: Parliamentary Affairs
Volume: 63
issue: 1
Year: 2010
First Page: 41
Last Page: 65
Éric Bélanger


Forecasting Canadian Federal Elections
Journal: PS: Political Science and Politics
Volume: 43
issue: 4
Year: 2010
First Page: 691
Last Page: 699


Riding the Orange Wave: Leadership, Values, Issues, and the 2011 Canadian Election
Journal: Canadian Journal of Political Science
Volume: 46
issue: 4
Year: 2013
First Page: 863
Last Page: 897
Fred Cutler
Stuart Soroka


Uniting the Left? The Potential for a NDP-Liberal Party Merger
Journal: Reviving Social Democracy: The Near Death and Surprising Rise of the Federal NDP
Year: 2014
Frédéric Mérand
Place: Vancouver
Publisher: UBC Press


The Chávez Vote and the National Economy in Venezuela
Journal: Electoral Studies
Volume: 32
issue: 3
Year: 2013
First Page: 482
Last Page: 488
Thomas Didier


The Economy and Electoral Outcomes: Party Differences in Canadian Federal Elections
Journal: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties,
Volume: 20
issue: 1
Year: 2010
First Page: 83
Last Page: 101


Le vote économique en contexte de crise financière : le cas de l’élection provinciale québécoise de 2008.
Year: 2010
Conference Name: Société québécoise de science politique, Québec


Un modèle d’explication du vote des Québécois
Journal: Les Québécois aux urnes,
Year: 2013
First Page: 191
Last Page: 207
Place: Montréal


Economics and Elections Revisited
Journal: Comparative Political Studies
Volume: 46
issue: 5
Year: 2013
First Page: 551
Last Page: 573
Michael S. Lewis-Beck


La montée des tiers partis au Québec à l’élection de 2007: conjoncture ou tendance?
Journal: Choix IRPP
Volume: 14
issue: 17
Year: 2008
First Page: 1
Last Page: 36


Une élection extraordinaire?
Journal: Les Québécois aux urnes : les partis, les médias et les citoyens en campagne
Year: 2013
First Page: 9
Last Page: 20
Place: Montréal
Publisher: Presses UdM


Qui vote pour qui?
Journal: L’état du Québec 2013-2014
Year: 2013
First Page: 143
Last Page: 147
Place: Montréal
Publisher: Boréal


The Blue Electorate in Quebec and Support for the ADQ and the CPC
Journal: Conservatism in Canada
Year: 2013
First Page: 293
Last Page: 316
Andrea Lawlor
Place: Toronto
Publisher: UofT Press


La dynamique électorale
Journal: Le système politique américain, 5th edition
Year: 2013
First Page: 229
Last Page: 265
Place: Montréal
Publisher: Presses UdM


The 2012 Provincial Election in Quebec
Journal: Canadian Political Science Review
Volume: 8
issue: 1
Year: 2014
First Page: 141
Last Page: 149
Eva Falk Pedersen


Health Care Policy and Opinion in the United States and Canada
Year: 2015
Stuart Soroka
Antonia Maioni
Place: New York
Publisher: Routledge


Party Behaviour in Quebec: Ownership, Contagion, and Multi-dimensionality of the National Question
Year: 2014
Place: Edinburgh
Conference Name: 2014 EPOP Conference


Patrimony and French presidential vote choice: Evidence from the 2012 election
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 12
issue: 1
Year: 2014
First Page: 59
Last Page: 68
Mathieu Turgeon
Michael S Lewis-Beck
Martial Foucault


The Influence of Party Loyalty on Electoral Outcomes
Year: 2012
Andrea Lawlor
Place: edmonton
Conference Name: Congrès annuel de l'association canadienne de science politique


The Influence of Party Discipline on Electoral Outcomes
Year: 2011
Place: Waterloo
Conference Name: Canadian Political Science Association Meeting


``Legislative Turnover in the Canadian House of Commons (1867-2008)."
Year: 2011
Place: Chicago
Conference Name: Midwest Political Science Association Meeting,


A Vote Function Model to Forecast Canadian Federal Election Outcomes
Year: 2009
Place: Paris/TO
Conference Name: Economic Voting and VP functions symposium, l'American Political Science Association Meeting


Cross-border Perceptions of US and Canadian Health Care Systems.”
Year: 2012
Stuart Soroka
Antonia Maioni
Place: Madrid
Conference Name: Congress of the International Political Science Association


“Strategic Issue Framing in Election Campaigns: The Case of Healthcare in the 2000 Canadian Federal Election.”
Year: 2008
Place: Boston
Conference Name: Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.


The Confidence Gap: Income Divergence and Political Attitude in Canada
Journal: Canadian Public Policy
Year: 2016
Andrea Perrella
Martial Foucault


Does a Growing Income Gap Affect Political Attitudes?
Journal: Canadian Public Policy
Volume: 42
issue: 1
Year: 2016
Andrea Perrella
Martial Foucault


The British General Election: Synthetic Forecasts
Journal: Electoral Studies
Volume: 41
Year: 2016
First Page: 264
Last Page: 268
Michael Lewis-Beck


Issue Ownership of the Economy: Cross-Time Effects on Vote Choice
Journal: West European Politics
Volume: 38
issue: 4
Year: 2015
First Page: 909
Last Page: 932


Quantitative Methods in Political Science: Research in France and the United States
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 13
issue: 2
Year: 2015
First Page: 175
Last Page: 184
Michael S. Lewis-Beck


Economic Crisis, Party Competence and the Economic Vote
Journal: Acta Politica
Volume: 49
issue: 4
Year: 2014
First Page: 462
Last Page: 485


Les Québécois aux urnes: les partis, les médias et les citoyens en campagne
Year: 2013
Francois Gélineau
Éric Bélanger
Place: Montréal


Econometric Approaches to Forecasting
Journal: The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour
Year: 2016
David Trotter
Publisher: Sage


Third Parties in Canada: Variety and Success
Journal: Canadian Parties in Transition, 4th edition
Year: 2016


National Identity and Support for Sovereignty in Quebec
Journal: Quebec Questions: Quebec Studies for the Twenty-First Century
Year: 2016
Stéphan Gervais
Christopher Kirkey
Jarrett Rudy


The Bloc Québécois in a Rainbow-Coloured Quebec
Journal: The Canadian Federal Election of 2015
Year: 2016


The Rainbow Wave in Quebec
Journal: The Canadian Federal Election of 2011
Year: 2016


Voting Behaviour and Political Trust
Journal: Handbook on Political Trust
Year: 2016


The Blue Electorate in Quebec and Support for the ADQ and the CPC
Journal: Conservatism in Canada
Year: 2014
Andrea Lawlor
Place: Toronto
Publisher: UofT Press


The Comparative Study of Canadian Voting Behaviour
Journal: Comparing Canada: Methods and Perspectives on Canadian Politics
Year: 2014
First Page: 97
Last Page: 122
Laura B. Stephenson
Place: Vancouver
Publisher: UBC Press


The Economy and Federal Election Outcomes in Canada: Taking Provincial Economic Conditions into Account
Journal: Duty and Choice : Participation and Preferences in Democratic Elections
Year: 2015
Jerome Bruno


Quebec-Scotland: The National Issue in Substate Politic
Year: 2015
Eve Hepburn
Ailsa Henderson
Publisher: Oxford University Press


French Popularity Functions: Different Measures, Different Determinants?
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 13
issue: 3
Year: 2015
First Page: 266
Last Page: 286
Mathieu Turgeon


Rendicion de Cuentas en las democratias en desarollo: El votante Latinoamericao (Economic Accountability in Low-Income Democracies: The Latin American Voter)
Journal: La Revista de Ciencia Politica
Volume: 35
issue: 3
Year: 2015
First Page: 463
Last Page: 488
María Celeste Ratto
Michael Lewis-Beck
Mathieu Turgeon


Economía y elecciones en Argentina: las dimensiones clásica (valence), posicional y patrimonial de la teoría del Voto Económico
Journal: Revista Sociedad Argentina de Analisis Politico
Volume: 7
issue: 1
Year: 2015
First Page: 199
Last Page: 201
María Celeste Ratto
Michael Lewis-Beck
Mathieu Turgeon


Record, Reputation and Economic Voting
Journal: West European Politics
Year: 2015


The 2014 Provincial Election in Quebec
Journal: Canadian Political Science Review
Volume: 9
issue: 2
Year: 2015
Eva Falk Pedersen