McGill University
Department of Political Science
Éric Bélanger

McGill University
Department of Political Science
Address: 3610 McTavish, Rm 26-3
Tel: 514-398-4400 Ext 094127
Email: eric.belanger3@mcgill.ca
Education
PhD in Political Science, University of Montreal, 2003
Research
Éric Bélanger is Professor of Political Science at McGill University. He is also a member of the Royal Society of Canada’s College of New Scholars, Artists and Scientists. Though centered around Quebec and Canadian politics, his research focuses on the general themes of political parties, public opinion, and voting behaviour using a variety of quantitative methods. Some of his prior research has been concerned with economic voting and Quebec provincial elections. He is also involved in research projects studying voting behaviour in Latin America, as well as a comparison of nationalism in Quebec and Scotland. Research Axis Axis 2: Practicing Citizenship in a Skeptical World - The practice of democratic citizenship is undergoing a multifaceted transition. There are fundamental changes in conceptions of democratic citizenship and in its practice as well as the targets of citizen action. Scepticism about representative democracy as a system of governance is growing and citizens across established democracies are withdrawing from politics. Their perception about the political world is impacted by transformations in the news media practices and by online content, including social media. Voting and party politics have been the basis of conventional interpretations of citizenship, but there is ample evidence that this conception is much too limited. New forms of communication are providing citizens with novel ways to gather information and to engage in politics.Axis 3: Representing and Governing Citizens in Critical Times - After learning and practicing democratic citizenship, the next critical steps are representation and governance. Democratic institutions are key elements. They shape the norms and incentives for active citizenship and they link citizens and their representatives in ways that foster accountability, legitimacy and representation. In Québec and Canada, as well as in other countries, confidence of citizens toward the institutions is low, as many dislike the way that members of parliaments behave and consider that politicians don’t honour their promises, hence various political endeavours to reform these institutions. Research on this axis will focus on the role of electoral systems, parliaments, parliamentary debates, and political parties.
Students
Postdocs
theme Perceiving the Public World Making Choice in Public Life Debating Citizens choices: Parties and Parliaments
Publications
Third Party Success in Canada
Journal: Canadian Parties in Transition
Year: 2007 First Page: 83 Last Page: 109 Place: Peterborough
La langue française et la politique d'immigration
Journal: Le Parti libéral: enquête sur les réalisations du gouvernement Charest
Year: 2006 First Page: 257 Last Page: 272
Le gouvernement Charest a-t-il été aussi mauvais qu'on l'a dit?
Journal: Le Parti libéral: enquête sur les réalisations du gouvernement Charest
Year: 2006 First Page: 415 Last Page: 423
The Bloc Québécois: A Sour-Tasting Victory
Journal: The Canadian Federal Election of 2006
Year: 2006 First Page: 122 Last Page: 142
Le gouvernement Charest a-t-il tenu ses promesses?
Journal: L'annuaire du Québec 2007
Year: 2006 First Page: 151 Last Page: 155
Explaining the Rise of the LPF: Issues, Discontent, and the 2002 Dutch Election.
Journal: Acta Politica
Volume: 41 issue: 1 Year: 2006 First Page: 4 Last Page: 20
Party, Ideology, and Vote Intentions: Dynamics from the 2002 French Electoral Panel
Journal: Political Research Quarterly
Volume: 59 issue: 4 Year: 2006 First Page: 503 Last Page: 515
A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election
Journal: British Journal of Politics and International Relations
Volume: 7 issue: 2 Year: 2005 First Page: 191 Last Page: 198
Political Trust and the Vote in Multiparty Elections: The Canadian Case
Journal: European Journal of Political Research
Volume: 44 issue: 1 Year: 2005 First Page: 121 Last Page: 146
The Rational Public? A Canadian Test of the Page and Shapiro Argument
Journal: International Journal of Public Opinion Research
Volume: 17 issue: 2 Year: 2005 First Page: 190 Last Page: 212
Un tripartisme de transition
Journal: Policy Options/Options politiques
Volume: 28 issue: 5 Year: 2007 First Page: 69 Last Page: 73
Un réalignement s'opère… au détriment du PQ
Journal: Le Soleil
Year: 2007
How will we vote?
Journal: Toronto Star
Year: 2006
The 2007 Provincial Election in Quebec
Journal: Canadian Political Science Review
Volume: 2 issue: 1 Year: 2008 First Page: 72 Last Page: 77
Issue Salience, Issue Ownership, and Issue-Based Vote Choice
Journal: Electoral Studies
Volume: 27 issue: 3 Year: 2008 First Page: 477 Last Page: 491
La montee des tiers partis au Quebec a l'election de 2007: conjuncture ou tendance?
Journal: IRPP Choices
Volume: 14 issue: 17 Year: 2008 First Page: 1 Last Page: 36
Forecasting the Vote for a Third Party: The British Liberals, 1974-2005
Journal: British Journal of Politics and International Relations
Volume: 12 issue: 4 Year: 2010 First Page: 634 Last Page: 643
Does Perceived Competence Matter? Political Parties and Economic Voting in Canadian Federal Elections
Journal: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
Volume: 20 issue: 1 Year: 2010
The 2008 Provincial Election in Quebec
Journal: Canadian Political Science Review
Volume: 3 issue: 1 Year: 2009 First Page: 93 Last Page: 99
Young Quebec Sovereignists and Attitudes about Canadian Federalism
Journal: Québec Studies
Volume: 47 Year: 2009 First Page: 95 Last Page: 118
Facteurs d'appui à la souveraineté du Québec chez les jeunes: une comparaison entre francophones, anglophones et allophones
Journal: Politique et sociétés
Volume: 27 issue: 3 Year: 2008 First Page: 13 Last Page: 40
Third-Party Support in Canadian Elections: The Role of the Economy.
Journal: Voting Behaviour in Canada
Year: 2010 First Page: 163 Last Page: 182 Place: Vancouver Publisher: UBC Press
Parties and Partisans: The Influence of Ideology and Brokerage on the Durability of Partisanship in Canada
Journal: Voting Behaviour in Canada
Year: 2009 First Page: 107 Last Page: 136 Place: Vancouver Publisher: UBC Press
The Bloc Québécois: Victory by Default
Journal: The Canadian Federal Election of 2008
Year: 2009 First Page: 136 Last Page: 161 Place: Toronto Publisher: Dundurn
Le comportement électoral des Québécois
Year: 2009 Place: Montréal Publisher: Presses de l'Université de Montréal
Changements et continuités dans le comportement électoral
des Québécois
Journal: l'État du Québec 2010
Year: 2010 First Page: 253 Last Page: 257 Place: Montréal Publisher: Fides
L'électeur québécois et les partis
Journal: Les partis politiques québécois dans la tourmente: mieux comprendre et évaluer leur rôle
Year: 2012 First Page: 169 Last Page: 193 Place: Québec Publisher: Presses de l'Université Laval
The Bloc Québécois: Capsized by the Orange Wave
Journal: The Canadian Federal Election of 2011
Year: 2011 First Page: 111 Last Page: 137 Place: Toronto Publisher: Dundurn PRess
Continuité et changement dans le vote des Québécois
Journal: L'état du Québec 2010
Year: 2010 First Page: 253 Last Page: 257 Place: Montreal Publisher: Boréal
Parties and Partisans: The Influence of Ideology and Brokerage on the Durability of Partisanship in Canada
Journal: Voting Behaviour in Canada
Year: 2010 First Page: 107 Last Page: 136 Place: Vancouver Publisher: University of British Columbia Press
Campaigns and the Prediction of Election Outcomes: Can Historical and Campaign-Period Prediction Models Be Combined?
Journal: Electoral Studies
Volume: 31 issue: 4 Year: 2012 First Page: 702 Last Page: 714
Le vote économique en contexte de crise financière: l'élection provinciale de 2008 au Québec
Journal: Canadian Journal of Political Science
Volume: 44 issue: 3 Year: 2011 First Page: 529 Last Page: 551
French National Elections: Democratic Disequilibrium and the 2007 Forecasts
Journal: Canadian Journal of Political Science
Volume: 43 issue: 1 Year: 2010 First Page: 107 Last Page: 122
Book Review: Les partis générationnels au Québec: passé, présent, avenir by Vincent Lemieux
Volume: 45 issue: 2 Year: 2012 Publisher: Canadian Journal of Political Science
Is the Independence Issue Back on the Agenda in Quebec?
Journal: e-International Relations
Year: 2012
Book Review: Le Parti libéral du Québec, 2ième édition by Vincent Lemieux
Volume: 43 issue: 2 Year: 2010 Publisher: Canadian Journal of Political Science
Third Party Support in Canadian Federal and Provincial Elections
Journal: Canadian Voting Behaviour
Year: 2010 First Page: 163 Last Page: 182 Place: Vancouver Publisher: UBC Press
Introduction
Journal: Le Parti libéral: enquête sur les réalisations du gouvernement Charest
Year: 2006 First Page: 1 Last Page: 8
Le Parti libéral: enquête sur les réalisations du gouvernement Charest
Year: 2006 Place: Les Presses de l'Université Laval
Electoral Accountability in a Federal System: National and Provincial Economic Voting in Canada
Journal: Publius: The Journal of Federalism
Volume: 35 issue: 3 Year: 2005 First Page: 407 Last Page: 424
Economic Voting and Political Sophistication in the United States: A Reassessment
Journal: Political Research Quarterly
Volume: 60 issue: 3 Year: 2007 First Page: 541 Last Page: 554
La victoire anticipée des travaillistes
Journal: Libération
Year: 2005
How Sophisticated Can a Voter Be to Make Causal Attributions? A Response to Gomez and Wilson's Comment.
Journal: Political Research Quarterly
Volume: 60 issue: 3 Year: 2007 First Page: 559 Last Page: 560
Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Segolene Royal and the Iowa Model
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 6 issue: 2 Year: 2008 First Page: 106 Last Page: 115
BQ in the House: The Nature of Sovereigntist Representation in the Canadian Parliament
Journal: Nationalism and Ethnic Politics
Volume: 14 issue: 4 Year: 2008 First Page: 487 Last Page: 522
Comment expliquer la vague orange du 2 mai au Québec?
Journal: L'état du Québec 2012
Year: 2012 First Page: 119 Last Page: 125 Place: Montreal Publisher: Boréal
Quebec versus the Rest of Canada, 1965-2006
Journal: The Canadian Election Studies: Assessing Four Decades of Influence
Year: 2012 First Page: 136 Last Page: 153 Place: Vancouver Publisher: University of British Columbia Press
Election Forecasting in Neglected Democracies: An Introduction
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Volume: 28 issue: 4 Year: 2012 First Page: 767 Last Page: 768
Le comportement électoral aux États-Unis
Journal: Le système politique américain
Year: 2013 Place: Montreal Publisher: Presses de l'Université de Montréal
Choosing the Dependent Variable: Sarkozy's Forecasting Lessons
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 10 issue: 4 Year: 2012 First Page: 364 Last Page: 368
Débats télévisés et évaluations des candidats: la représentation visuelle des politiciens canadiens agit-elle dans la formation des préférences de l'électorat québécois?
Journal: Revue canadienne de science politique/Canadian Journal of Political Science
Volume: 38 issue: 4 Year: 2005 First Page: 867 Last Page: 895
Economics and Elections Revisited
Journal: Comparative Political Studies
Year: 2012 First Page: 1-23
Electoral Forecasting in France: A Multi-Equation Solution
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Volume: 26 issue: 1 Year: 2010 First Page: 11 Last Page: 18
Election Forecasting in the United Kingdom: A Two-Step Model
Journal: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
Volume: 19 issue: 3 Year: 2009 First Page: 333 Last Page: 358
French Presidential Elections
Year: 2012 Place: Basingstoke Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Proxy Models for Election Forecasting: The 2012 French Test
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 10 issue: 1 Year: 2012 First Page: 1 Last Page: 10
Nowcasting V. Polling: The 2010 UK Election Trials
Journal: Electoral Studies
Volume: 30 issue: 2 Year: 2011 First Page: 284 Last Page: 287
Issue-Based Strategies in Election Campaigns: The Case of Health Care in the 2000 Canadian Federal Election
Journal: Political Communication
Volume: 27 issue: 4 Year: 2010 First Page: 367 Last Page: 388
Economics and Elections Revisited
Journal: Comparative Political Studies
Year: 2012
Le vote des Français de Mitterrand à Sarkozy
Year: 2012 Place: Paris Publisher: Presses de Sciences Po
A Vote Function Model to Forecast Canadian Federal Election Outcomes
Journal: PS: Political Science and Politics
Volume: 43 issue: 4 Year: 2010 First Page: 691 Last Page: 699 Éric Bélanger
Why do Parties Merge? The Case of the Conservative Party of Canada?
Journal: Parliamentary Affairs
Volume: 63 issue: 1 Year: 2010 First Page: 41 Last Page: 65 Éric Bélanger
Forecasting Canadian Federal Elections
Journal: PS: Political Science and Politics
Volume: 43 issue: 4 Year: 2010 First Page: 691 Last Page: 699
Riding the Orange Wave: Leadership, Values, Issues, and the 2011 Canadian Election
Journal: Canadian Journal of Political Science
Volume: 46 issue: 4 Year: 2013 First Page: 863 Last Page: 897 Fred Cutler Stuart Soroka
Uniting the Left? The Potential for a NDP-Liberal Party Merger
Journal: Reviving Social Democracy: The Near Death and Surprising Rise of the Federal NDP
Year: 2014 Frédéric Mérand Place: Vancouver Publisher: UBC Press
The Chávez Vote and the National Economy in Venezuela
Journal: Electoral Studies
Volume: 32 issue: 3 Year: 2013 First Page: 482 Last Page: 488 Thomas Didier
The Economy and Electoral Outcomes: Party Differences in Canadian Federal Elections
Journal: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties,
Volume: 20 issue: 1 Year: 2010 First Page: 83 Last Page: 101
Le vote économique en contexte de crise financière : le cas de l’élection provinciale québécoise de 2008.
Year: 2010 Conference Name: Société québécoise de science politique, Québec
Un modèle d’explication du vote des Québécois
Journal: Les Québécois aux urnes,
Year: 2013 First Page: 191 Last Page: 207 Place: Montréal
Economics and Elections Revisited
Journal: Comparative Political Studies
Volume: 46 issue: 5 Year: 2013 First Page: 551 Last Page: 573 Michael S. Lewis-Beck
La montée des tiers partis au Québec à l’élection de 2007: conjoncture ou tendance?
Journal: Choix IRPP
Volume: 14 issue: 17 Year: 2008 First Page: 1 Last Page: 36
Une élection extraordinaire?
Journal: Les Québécois aux urnes : les partis, les médias et les citoyens en campagne
Year: 2013 First Page: 9 Last Page: 20 Place: Montréal Publisher: Presses UdM
Qui vote pour qui?
Journal: L’état du Québec 2013-2014
Year: 2013 First Page: 143 Last Page: 147 Place: Montréal Publisher: Boréal
The Blue Electorate in Quebec and Support for the ADQ and the CPC
Journal: Conservatism in Canada
Year: 2013 First Page: 293 Last Page: 316 Andrea Lawlor Place: Toronto Publisher: UofT Press
La dynamique électorale
Journal: Le système politique américain, 5th edition
Year: 2013 First Page: 229 Last Page: 265 Place: Montréal Publisher: Presses UdM
The 2012 Provincial Election in Quebec
Journal: Canadian Political Science Review
Volume: 8 issue: 1 Year: 2014 First Page: 141 Last Page: 149 Eva Falk Pedersen
Health Care Policy and Opinion in the United States and Canada
Year: 2015 Stuart Soroka Antonia Maioni Place: New York Publisher: Routledge
Party Behaviour in Quebec: Ownership, Contagion, and Multi-dimensionality of the National Question
Year: 2014 Place: Edinburgh Conference Name: 2014 EPOP Conference
Patrimony and French presidential vote choice: Evidence from the 2012 election
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 12 issue: 1 Year: 2014 First Page: 59 Last Page: 68 Mathieu Turgeon Michael S Lewis-Beck Martial Foucault
The Influence of Party Loyalty on Electoral Outcomes
Year: 2012 Andrea Lawlor Place: edmonton Conference Name: Congrès annuel de l'association canadienne de science politique
The Influence of Party Discipline on Electoral Outcomes
Year: 2011 Place: Waterloo Conference Name: Canadian Political Science Association Meeting
``Legislative Turnover in the Canadian House of Commons (1867-2008)."
Year: 2011 Place: Chicago Conference Name: Midwest Political Science Association Meeting,
A Vote Function Model to Forecast Canadian Federal Election Outcomes
Year: 2009 Place: Paris/TO Conference Name: Economic Voting and VP functions symposium, l'American Political Science Association Meeting
Cross-border Perceptions of US and Canadian Health Care Systems.”
Year: 2012 Stuart Soroka Antonia Maioni Place: Madrid Conference Name: Congress of the International Political Science Association
“Strategic Issue Framing in Election Campaigns: The Case of Healthcare in the 2000 Canadian Federal Election.”
Year: 2008 Place: Boston Conference Name: Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.
The Confidence Gap: Income Divergence and Political Attitude in Canada
Journal: Canadian Public Policy
Year: 2016 Andrea Perrella Martial Foucault
Does a Growing Income Gap Affect Political Attitudes?
Journal: Canadian Public Policy
Volume: 42 issue: 1 Year: 2016 Andrea Perrella Martial Foucault
The British General Election: Synthetic Forecasts
Journal: Electoral Studies
Volume: 41 Year: 2016 First Page: 264 Last Page: 268 Michael Lewis-Beck
Issue Ownership of the Economy: Cross-Time Effects on Vote Choice
Journal: West European Politics
Volume: 38 issue: 4 Year: 2015 First Page: 909 Last Page: 932
Quantitative Methods in Political Science: Research in France and the United States
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 13 issue: 2 Year: 2015 First Page: 175 Last Page: 184 Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Economic Crisis, Party Competence and the Economic Vote
Journal: Acta Politica
Volume: 49 issue: 4 Year: 2014 First Page: 462 Last Page: 485
Les Québécois aux urnes: les partis, les médias et les citoyens en campagne
Year: 2013 Francois Gélineau Éric Bélanger Place: Montréal
Econometric Approaches to Forecasting
Journal: The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour
Year: 2016 David Trotter Publisher: Sage
Third Parties in Canada: Variety and Success
Journal: Canadian Parties in Transition, 4th edition
Year: 2016
National Identity and Support for Sovereignty in Quebec
Journal: Quebec Questions: Quebec Studies for the Twenty-First Century
Year: 2016 Stéphan Gervais Christopher Kirkey Jarrett Rudy
The Bloc Québécois in a Rainbow-Coloured Quebec
Journal: The Canadian Federal Election of 2015
Year: 2016
The Rainbow Wave in Quebec
Journal: The Canadian Federal Election of 2011
Year: 2016
Voting Behaviour and Political Trust
Journal: Handbook on Political Trust
Year: 2016
The Blue Electorate in Quebec and Support for the ADQ and the CPC
Journal: Conservatism in Canada
Year: 2014 Andrea Lawlor Place: Toronto Publisher: UofT Press
The Comparative Study of Canadian Voting Behaviour
Journal: Comparing Canada: Methods and Perspectives on Canadian Politics
Year: 2014 First Page: 97 Last Page: 122 Laura B. Stephenson Place: Vancouver Publisher: UBC Press
The Economy and Federal Election Outcomes in Canada: Taking Provincial Economic Conditions into Account
Journal: Duty and Choice : Participation and Preferences in Democratic Elections
Year: 2015 Jerome Bruno
Quebec-Scotland: The National Issue in Substate Politic
Year: 2015 Eve Hepburn Ailsa Henderson Publisher: Oxford University Press
French Popularity Functions: Different Measures, Different Determinants?
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 13 issue: 3 Year: 2015 First Page: 266 Last Page: 286 Mathieu Turgeon
Rendicion de Cuentas en las democratias en desarollo: El votante Latinoamericao (Economic Accountability in Low-Income Democracies: The Latin American Voter)
Journal: La Revista de Ciencia Politica
Volume: 35 issue: 3 Year: 2015 First Page: 463 Last Page: 488 María Celeste Ratto Michael Lewis-Beck Mathieu Turgeon
Economía y elecciones en Argentina: las dimensiones clásica (valence), posicional y patrimonial de la teoría del Voto Económico
Journal: Revista Sociedad Argentina de Analisis Politico
Volume: 7 issue: 1 Year: 2015 First Page: 199 Last Page: 201 María Celeste Ratto Michael Lewis-Beck Mathieu Turgeon
Record, Reputation and Economic Voting
Journal: West European Politics
Year: 2015
The 2014 Provincial Election in Quebec
Journal: Canadian Political Science Review
Volume: 9 issue: 2 Year: 2015 Eva Falk Pedersen
Elecciones latinoamericanas: selección y cambio de voto
Year: 2019 First Page: 1 Last Page: 270 Michael S. Lewis-Beck Mathieu Turgeon María Celeste Ratto Place: Brussels Publisher: Peter Lang
The National Question and Electoral Politics in Quebec and Scotland
Year: 2017 Ailsa Henderson Eve Hepburn Place: Montréal Publisher: Montreal & Kingston: McGill-Queen’s University Press
The 2012 Provincial Election in Quebec
Journal: Canadian Political Science Review
Volume: 8 issue: 1 Year: 2014 First Page: 141 Last Page: 149 Eva Falk Pedersen
Les partis politiques fédéraux et québécois
Journal: Le parlementarisme canadien
Year: 2017 Richard Pelletier Place: Québec Publisher: Presses de l'Université Laval
The Conservative Turn among the Canadian Electorate
Journal: The Blueprint: Conservative Parties and their Impact on Canadian Politics
Year: 2017 First Page: 44 Last Page: 77 Place: Toronto Publisher: University of Toronto Press
The Economy and Federal Election Outcomes in Canada: Taking Provincial Economic Conditions into Account
Journal: Duty and Choice : Participation and Preferences in Democratic Elections
Year: 2019 Jérôme B Place: Toronto Publisher: University of Toronto Press
The Confidence Gap: Income Divergence and Political Attitude in Canada
Journal: Canadian Public Policy
Year: 2016 Perrella Andréa Foucault Martial
Framing the Victory : How the Leave Option Won the Brexit Referendum
Year: 2019 Ece Atikcan Place: Montréal Publisher: McGill-Queen's University Press
Is the Parti Québécois Bound to Disappear? A Study of the Generational Dynamics of Electoral Behaviour in Contemporary Quebec
Journal: Canadian Journal of Political Science
Volume: 52 issue: 2 Year: 2019 First Page: 335 Last Page: 356
Dual Ballot Effects on French Presidential Vote Choice
Journal: Electoral Studies
Volume: 57 Year: 2019 First Page: 61 Last Page: 70
Social Media Use and Voting Intention in the 2012 Quebec Election Campaign
Journal: French Politics
Volume: 17 Year: 2019 First Page: 468 Last Page: 481
Economic Voting in Provincial Elections: Revisiting Electoral Accountability in the Canadian Provinces
Journal: Regional & Federal Studies
Volume: 29 issue: 3 Year: 2019 First Page: 307 Last Page: 327
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